08 May, 2010

The factory back door is now huge business

Melbourne Herald Sun 8th May, 2010

Sometimes I'm a bit slow at finding things, despite my pretence to expertise in marketing and advertising. So it was that just last weekend I visited my first DFO.

In case you're one of the four people out of today's million and a half readers who hasn't yet heard of them, they are Direct Factor Outlets. And they are unbelievably huge.

If you've been around long enough to remember a time when there were factories manufacturing goods in Melbourne, you'll remember factory outlets. Round the back of the shoe or clothing or leather factory there would be a small inconspicuous door leading to a large room stocked with racks of the factory's produce.

If you had a friend who worked there or had some other connection, you could buy the goods at a wholesale price. But it had to be secret because the whole structure of retail price maintenance depended on goods only being available through proper retail stores.

Well that was long before the dismemberment of retail price maintenance, before huge monopolistic supermarket and retail chains destroyed the normal give and take of manufacture and trade, and before Australian industry shut up shop and moved to China.

The modern DFOs - huge complexes of 20,000 sqm and with 100 or more stores inside - claim to be the modern factory back door. But once you get inside you find a very familiar shopping mall, not as classy as Chadstone but with many of the same retailers.

Yes, all the usual suspects - Just Jeans, Country Road, Adairs, Boost Juice, Matchbox - are there. So is there any difference?

They claim that their goods are seconds, display merchandise and end of season goods. Some of them are, but most of them are retail products bought to sell at discounted prices. It's like the department stores pretending that their Boxing Day sales are just goods that didn't sell at Christmas, even as you see the containers unloading at the back gate.

DFOs as we know them started in the US and the first purpose-built Australian one arrived in 1997, at Moorabbin. It evaded state and municipal planning laws - which would have stopped such a big centre being built so close to Southland - by using Federal land. It comes under Moorabbin Airport jurisdiction, which is why most of these centres are built near airports.

DFO is the brain child of two very rich, very clever men. David Goldberger and David Wieland first made their pile nearly 40 years ago with Solo petrol stations. These have now evolved into Liberty Oil. The oil business bought the two entrepreneurs identical mansions next to each other in Toorak. They used their wealth to generate even more when they formed Austexx, owner of the biggest chain, DFO.

This financial muscle has been necessary because their development has been fought every step of the way, particularly by Frank Lowy's Westfield Group, and the state governments in Queensland, NSW and Tasmania.

Do they actually harm other traders' business? Well certainly seeing the crowds milling through Moorabbin last weekend clutching armfuls of large shopping bags, they cast doubt on the retail recession.

Their estimated penetration is $1 billion, or 0.5 per cent of the market. However in the clothing and softgoods market it's more like 4.5 per cent.

I asked a friend, a long-time Chapel St retailer, if his business had been affected by them. "No, they have more affect on the outer suburbs than down here, where sales are more fashion conscious." But he'd heard that the Spencer Street Station outlet had hurt some City stores.

Not Myer though: "People shop at Myer for the new season's fashions. They don't get that at factory outlets," said Myer spokesman John Gillman.

Well my new sneakers don't have a fancy brand name, but they're very comfortable and boy they were incredibly cheap.

Ray@ebeatty.com

China rules through our Cargo Cult addiction

Melbourne Herald Sun, 3rd January 2010

On New Year 2008 I described the state of world business as “Cargo Cult Economics”. Remember those natives of war-time New Guinea who believed that wealth was delivered by the gods? The planes would always land, bringing them food, clothing, machines - it was magic, they came out of thin air.

But once the war was over, the goods stopped coming. So the natives made gifts to appease the gods. They built aeroplanes out of straw and copra, radios out of coconuts, control towers out of bamboo poles. They believed that the cargo would always come.

So in our cities and Wall Street we believed that income would continue to grow, share prices would never fall, houses were solid investments.

By New Year 2009 the economic tsunami had demonstrated the flimsiness of our beliefs. Superannuation was supposed to be rock solid but it dissolved like sand. Banks crashed. Share prices crumbled, much of the world went into recession. At last we could see through all these financial facades and concentrate on building something real.

But wait a minute - here’s New Year 2010 and what do we see? All those coconut and banana structures are being rebuilt. Everybody is triumphant at having successfully saved our sacred cargo cult. The control towers are still built of bamboo and straw, the radar is a spinning gourd shell.

But the natives are living well. We have ample supplies of any goods we fancy. Beautifully made and very cheap, kindly provided by the hard working gods from Beijing.

These generous souls also allow us to continue our extravagant lifestyle, by giving us money whenever we need it. Currently America owes China about a trillion dollars for government securities alone. Whenever Uncle Sam needs a buck, Uncle Hu Jintao delivers.

Then last month we saw vividly where it was leading. China decided it did not want to be restricted by a Copenhagen treaty. So it told Obama, Brown, Sarkozy, Merkel, Rudd and the rest of our leaders to shut up and sign what it dictated. The world was going to play by China’s rules or not at all. After some vain protests, our leaders meekly signed the filleted accord.

China learned the lessons of world diplomacy from the best teachers. The British Empire fought the Opium Wars between 1839 and 1860 so they could feed the Chinese people constant supplies of opium. We knew an addicted people was in our power.

Well now the West are the addicts. Dependent on China for their tellies, iPods, clothing and - soon - cars. We’re also addicted to money. Where do you think all these billions spent on financial bail-out schemes will come from, ultimately? More loans from Uncle Hu?

Those of us in marketing are just the front-end of the process. We sell the products, wherever they were made. We build the straw and bamboo store fronts, and stand there handing out the toys and gadgets made afar. We don’t create the goods, our tools are smoke and mirrors.

The world has very little time to get real. We’ll never cure the addiction so at least let’s make more of the dope ourselves. Like adding value to the minerals we’re feeding into the furnaces of Asia’s industry.

Trouble is, our politicians have seen what happens to those who try to expose the cargo cult or preach reality. They are ripped apart by a raging mob. (Here we call this an election.)

Whatever persuasion you are, it’s time to stop berating our politicians and start encouraging them to be brave. It’s going to take some tough decisions if we’re to break the addiction of cargo cult economics. Happy New Year.

Ray@ebeatty.com

07 May, 2010

3D is coming to an armchair near you!

Melbourne Herald Sun, 9th January 2010

As a thrill junkie who nevertheless likes his adventures to be comfortable and safe, I determined to see the movie Avatar in 3-D, on the huge IMAX screen.

It was the right choice. Even if the story was rather predictable, the visual effects were stunning, keeping me on the edge of my seat for over two hours. Now this is the first 3-D I’ve seen in over 30 years and I’ve got to tell you it has come a long way from the old red and green plastic glasses.

Meanwhile, across the globe in Las Vegas, the world’s biggest gadget fair, the Consumer Electronics Show, is running this weekend. And guess what their hottest item is? Yup, 3-D TV. All the manufacturers are working round the clock to produce the newest, flashiest three-dimensional tellies.

Of course the first thing you’ll think is, "Oh gawd, does that mean that my brand-new $6000 digital TV is going to be obsolete in a couple of years?" Well, hate to be the one who tells you but... yes.

That's the way of marketing. Always have something new and irresistible waiting in the wings ready to create a frenzied wave of desire and buying around the world.

Sony already has a plan which forecasts that by the end of the 2012-2013 financial year, 3-D TVs will make up between 30 and 50 percent of the sets it sells. The Blu-ray Disc Association is working on a 3-D disc standard, plus Sony plans to add 3-D to PlayStation 3.

As always the other big manufacturers like Panasonic and Mitsubishi are hot in the race, while LG expects to sell 40,000 3-D-enabled sets worldwide this year.

You'll notice that there are a couple of marketing essentials missing here. Like product and distribution. Where are all these 3-D movies going to come from?

Here again we see a flurry of activity. Everywhere, that is, except Australia.

In the US there are two cable networks planned for this year. One is ESDN, the other is a collaboration between Sony, IMAX and Discovery. In the UK, Sky has announced plans for its own channel. Australia, having just given birth to umpteen new free to air channels, has no publicly-announced plans for 3-D here. You'll just have to watch the discs.

But before you rush out to order a set, think on this. They still haven't agreed on a standard, or even a system, yet. In fact there are four ways to do it, each with long names I won't burden you with, but basically it comes down to what kind of glasses you'll need, or whether you'll need glasses at all.

The final question I know you're bursting to ask is: what about the commercials? How are we going to see house-proud mum hanging up the washing in three dimensions?

The bad news for marketers is that the cost of making commercials in 3-D will jump between ten and twenty per cent, according to a US estimate. In fact last year Pepsi ran a 3-D ad in the Super Bowl break. But before that they had to distribute 125 million pairs of glasses at retail outlets. That's a lot of money for one commercial, I can't see any Australian company doing it.

So you can relax about forking out for the technology in the near future, you might like to put a piggy bank next to your TV and start saving for the day when it will be needed. Because believe me, 3-D is coming for you, ready or not.


ray@ebeatty.com

END

05 May, 2010

If dope was legal what would it look like?

Not published. 11 November 2009

I’m asking this question in the business pages, not the news or editorial sections, because I want to discuss this in a cool, dispassionate way rather than with the usual hysteria that surrounds the topic.

There is an increasing volume of opinion that the ‘war on drugs’ has failed. In 14 US states cannabis can be legally sold for ‘medicinal purposes’. The White House recently told the Justice Department not to prosecute users or suppliers of this ‘legal’ pot.

Last month at the Sydney Opera House the Festival of Dangerous Ideas heard speaker after speaker declare that drug prohibition was not working and would ultimately collapse, just like Alcohol Prohibition in the US from 1920 to 1933.

We have to ask, what can we do to rid ourselves of a thousand Al Capones from Mexico and Colombia and every US city, from Afghanistan to the Golden Triangle, from Moscow to Griffiths? Well history has already told us that there will only be one answer to the drugs problem. Tax it.

Just as the end of prohibition saw the re-emergence of the huge American alcohol industry, will we see the drug industry boom world-wide? Will this be the business bonanza of the century, as the billions of illicit dollars become legal trading?

So how would this legal dope work? Well there are plenty of precedents. Australians could buy opium from the local shop until 1906, and heroin was legal here until 1963. A registered heroin addict can already get his methadone at a suburban chemist.

In the UK heroin was supplied under the National Health until the early 1970s, and drug crimes rates were extremely low. Over the years several commissions into drug use have pointed to it as a health rather than a policing problem. Most addicts and smugglers don’t start life as crooks.

All the billions we could save from the relentless crime fighting would more than pay for a network of care centres and rehabilitation clinics.

Tobacco companies already control and collect taxes on vast quantities of their restricted drugs, cigarettes. They would be the obvious distributors of commercially prepared cannabis. Many think they already have the plans in their contingency drawers.

Of course the branding would be discreet, the distribution carefully controlled, with lots of warnings on the packs. But nothing you haven’t seen before. Already the cafes of Amsterdam have their shelves stacked with glass jars of premium blends and the connoisseurs can compare flavour and THC kick without worrying about gangsters or police raids.

As for production, opium and heroin are easy - we already have the globe’s biggest Golden Triangle right here, called Tasmania. We produce 50% of the world’s concentrated poppy straw.

GlaxoSmithKline and Johnson & Johnson, the two multi-national pharmaceutical giants, already have this trade well sewn up. If you want the biggest opiate factory on earth, look no further than our own Port Fairy.

This rather puts us in the box seat, doesn’t it? The 21st century equivalent of the Sheep’s Back could be the Drug Flood.

South America is well set-up for the cocain business, and once the legal taxes started flowing in, it would give Colombia and Peru the sort of advantage that Venezuela has received from its off-shore oil wells.

This is not a spoof, I’m being quite serious here. If - when - the whole drug prohibition industry dies, probably with a whimper rather than a bang, it will be a world-wide economic shock wave. All those unemployed police, empty jails, impoverished gangsters.

And for some it will be a major business opportunity. So think about it.

ray@ebeatty.com

02 May, 2010

Tell the world - did you make love this morning?

Melbourne Herald Sun 24th October, 2009

Did you make love this morning? Did your neighbour? Maybe the answer is on your computer. Visit the web site ijustmadelove.com and you’ll find thousands of people from Vladivostok to Antarctica, Woi Woi to Warsaw proudly proclaiming the night’s score. As I write this the site’s counter has clicked off over 50,000 reports.

This is as graphic a demonstration as I can find of how to start a new business venture on the Web. A lateral combination of imagination, psychology, technology and entrepreneurship.

Already the site is carrying the usual “call me” phone sex ads, but with the rate it is growing, before long the big advertisers will take over. After all it’s aimed at the right market to make it perfect for beer ads, confectionery, movies, not to mention contraception. No, whoever came up with the idea, I think you’re looking at another overnight millionaire.

Think it’s all too flimsy? Look at Twitter. The first tweet went out in March 2006. Just this month it was valued at $US1 billion. And it still doesn’t have a business plan - nobody has yet figured out how to make a cent out of it. However if you had any of Twitter’s original shares, they have increased in value 240,000 per cent.

But there’s good reason too. In Britain it was recently announced that on-line advertising had overtaken TV, in billings, for the first time. People are positioning themselves in a rapidly changing world. This has been pushed along by the global recession. Where advertisers in the US and UK have cut down on their TV spend, they have looked for cheaper alternatives and found that on-line was effective.

So there is a continuous hunt to find the next big thing and we are seeing lots of smart new businesses on the internet.

An example I found was TailoredMusic.com. This is a company formed by a group of musicians in Canada. They will write and record your very own love song, for around $200. They provide a number of ready-written songs and you can edit in the person’s name, an event, a sentiment - and it will all be professionally recorded and emailed to you as an MP3.

Imagine how delighted your sweetheart would be if at your favourite restaurant you plugged a speaker on your iPod, fell to your knees and played a love song especially for her! Well, you get the idea - it’s not for everyone.

The enterprise bug has even bitten closer to home. My wife and stepdaughter have been planning, writing and spending hours with web designers all year and early next month will launch ALittleColour.com, a colour consultant site for children. Sort of mini Trinny and kinder Suzannah.

You email or Facebook some photos of your little darlings which will be professionally analysed, and in return you’ll be given a report on the child’s colouring, a swatch book of their ideal colours, and advice on clothes and dressing. All for under $90. They’re highly excited as the launch approaches, all I ask is that when the millions start rolling in they don’t forget old Dad in the corner here.

Of course of the millions of new enterprises being launched every year, only a very small percentage will hit the jackpot. But a lot of them will supply a steady income flow for the operators. There’s the advantage of a world-wide catchment area for your customers. But the disadvantage of a world-wide source of competitors. So often the winner is the one who thought of it first, launched it big, and hung on for dear life.

Now, what was it you were doing this morning?

ray@ebeatty.com