Melbourne Herald Sun, 9th January 2010
As a thrill junkie who nevertheless likes his adventures to be comfortable and safe, I determined to see the movie Avatar in 3-D, on the huge IMAX screen.
It was the right choice. Even if the story was rather predictable, the visual effects were stunning, keeping me on the edge of my seat for over two hours. Now this is the first 3-D I’ve seen in over 30 years and I’ve got to tell you it has come a long way from the old red and green plastic glasses.
Meanwhile, across the globe in Las Vegas, the world’s biggest gadget fair, the Consumer Electronics Show, is running this weekend. And guess what their hottest item is? Yup, 3-D TV. All the manufacturers are working round the clock to produce the newest, flashiest three-dimensional tellies.
Of course the first thing you’ll think is, "Oh gawd, does that mean that my brand-new $6000 digital TV is going to be obsolete in a couple of years?" Well, hate to be the one who tells you but... yes.
That's the way of marketing. Always have something new and irresistible waiting in the wings ready to create a frenzied wave of desire and buying around the world.
Sony already has a plan which forecasts that by the end of the 2012-2013 financial year, 3-D TVs will make up between 30 and 50 percent of the sets it sells. The Blu-ray Disc Association is working on a 3-D disc standard, plus Sony plans to add 3-D to PlayStation 3.
As always the other big manufacturers like Panasonic and Mitsubishi are hot in the race, while LG expects to sell 40,000 3-D-enabled sets worldwide this year.
You'll notice that there are a couple of marketing essentials missing here. Like product and distribution. Where are all these 3-D movies going to come from?
Here again we see a flurry of activity. Everywhere, that is, except Australia.
In the US there are two cable networks planned for this year. One is ESDN, the other is a collaboration between Sony, IMAX and Discovery. In the UK, Sky has announced plans for its own channel. Australia, having just given birth to umpteen new free to air channels, has no publicly-announced plans for 3-D here. You'll just have to watch the discs.
But before you rush out to order a set, think on this. They still haven't agreed on a standard, or even a system, yet. In fact there are four ways to do it, each with long names I won't burden you with, but basically it comes down to what kind of glasses you'll need, or whether you'll need glasses at all.
The final question I know you're bursting to ask is: what about the commercials? How are we going to see house-proud mum hanging up the washing in three dimensions?
The bad news for marketers is that the cost of making commercials in 3-D will jump between ten and twenty per cent, according to a US estimate. In fact last year Pepsi ran a 3-D ad in the Super Bowl break. But before that they had to distribute 125 million pairs of glasses at retail outlets. That's a lot of money for one commercial, I can't see any Australian company doing it.
So you can relax about forking out for the technology in the near future, you might like to put a piggy bank next to your TV and start saving for the day when it will be needed. Because believe me, 3-D is coming for you, ready or not.
ray@ebeatty.com
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