Can Gillard save the Labor brand?

Melbourne Herald Sun, 3 July, 2010.

It sounded more like a marketing convention than political comment. Out of your paper, your telly, your computer came a flood of warnings: "Brand Rudd is terminally damaged", "The Kevin 07 brand has lost its lustre", "Labor's brand-damaging decisions". No wonder the cereal box had to be taken off the shelves and replaced with another one.

Now we have a New! Brighter! More Concentrated! product. But the question is, can it regain market leadership after such a battering?

These days political honeymoons last barely as long as the trip back from the registry office, so Julia Gillard can't rely on that to pull her across the line. Then what are Labor's marketing options for promoting themselves back into public favour, and how can the Libs stop them?

To start with they have to clear the debris off the decks. The resources tax advertising has quickly been hammered into a modified, negotiated package.

The miners knew that there was no way the tax would be dropped - no government was going to allow them to carve shiploads of money out of our soil without paying out a substantial slice. And it was obvious the Libs weren't going to rescue them - Tony Abbott has already started spending the money.

I do wish that political parties would stop decrying government advertising. Every opposition always swears that it will not use public advertising to promote its cause, and every one is revealed a liar once it gets into power.

But we the public need to get real too. We put such ridiculous demands on our politicians, such impossible standards which inevitably dissolve in the face of reality. Like this government coming under the multi-million dollar shock and awe attack of the miners. Of course they were going to dip into the treasury and fight back. Honestly, we act like the girl who believes her boyfriend doesn't have sex on his mind when he suggests a weekend in the country.

Expect to see a "happy schools" campaign to diffuse the coming attacks on Julia Gillard. The public needs to be assured that the benefits of the education spend are greater than a few screw-ups. And it's a weak spot you can bet Tony Abbot will be kicking with gusto because it's one of the few chinks in the PM's armour.

I asked the opinion of the best campaign strategist Labor ever had. Bob Hogg showed John Cain how to win, then repeatedly plotted the electoral victories for Bob Hawke. His last campaign was perhaps the most satisfying - stealing John Howard's seat with his partner Maxine McKew.

"They should concentrate on projecting their programs," said Hogg, "Don't spend time bagging Abbott - Gillard should not be associated with anything negative."


He also warns about jumping in response to opinion polls and "All the stupidity that comes out of Facebook and Twitter," which comes from very small groups and doesn't represent the public.

But Hogg was the one who invented closely managed election polling. Has he changed his mind? "No, you need research to give you information, but you don't let it run your life".

Everyone I speak to makes the same comments: that Kevin Rudd micro-managed obsessively and did not allow air to the others in his party, not the caucus nor even the cabinet. So we can expect Gillard to be much more inclusive and communicative.

This is where advertising can play a part. Not as the main thrust but as embroidery and expansion of the message. The Government needs to tell people what it is thinking and what's going on. And do it before it launches ready-made bills.

President Barak Obama has had a similar up and down ride. Fortunately for him he has no caucus to pull the plug.

But right from the start of his administration he has maintained an important link with any who care to take it. Every Saturday the White House blog loads a video address from the President. It may be just three minutes, or five, but enough to explain one of the week's topics. Not a bad idea, and you don't even have to face the charge of misusing public funds.

The Labor Government was taken by surprise at the ferocity of reaction to its carbon trading backdown. It was too busy watching the Libs and Greens across Parliament's floor and hadn't expected the massive scream that would come from its own supporters.

Mark up another topic for a coming public information campaign - once they have worked out what that information might be.

The Opposition has the hard task of kicking the Government's policies without beating up on a poor little girl. You can expect all kinds of lobby groups to pop up and run campaigns doing the dirty work, secretly guided from Abbott's office. The Government will be using the unions and others in the same way.

As for the Greens, reliable sources say that they have been gathering together their electoral funding from all over the country - they are paid $225 for every vote - and consolidating it into a killer treasure chest. Their target is Lindsey Tanner's vacated seat of Melbourne. Having taken a prime minister's head through their choking of the emissions trading scheme, their next political move is a seat in the Reps.

Now we can expect to see much of that money spent on Melbourne television through lots of very Green ads.

The Prime Minister made a smart political move by declaring that she would not take The Lodge until she won it outright. It gives a focus to the coming campaign ("Let's get Julia into The Lodge!") and an excuse for an early election.

If, this time next year, she's still in power and things get rocky again, she has another card up her sleeve. Australia's equivalent to a royal wedding. After all, that did wonders for Scott and Charlene's ratings.

The mobile phone wars are far from over - they’ve only just begun.

Herald Sun 26 June 2010

The mobile phone wars are hotting up with a new intensity of competition. The reason, of course, is the Apple iPhone. And the question is, has Steve Jobs given the sector a shot of adrenalin - or is he vampiring all of the blood for himself?

You see, last year because of the Greedy Financiers' Cataclysm (GFC) the mobile phone market took a sharp dip. The junk bond traders and barrow boys could no longer afford a new phone a week so sales and turnover declined.

But by this year it has recovered, globally up by 22 per cent in the first quarter, selling nearly 300 million units. The impetus has come from smart phones. After all, who wants to be seen with a dumb phone these days?

In the US it's still Blackberry in the lead with iPhone, the newcomer, hard on their heels. Already between them they have nearly 60 per cent of the market.

Here in Australia, Nokia is still the king. But market research analyst IDC predict that Apple will knock the Fin off its throne by Christmas.

The claim has some credence in the street. One phone store was asked, "Are the iPhones selling well?" Their reply, "We haven't been selling anything else all month." There is a definite swelling momentum at work here that could sweep all before it.

So I wondered, well the other companies aren't dummies, they're hardly going to pack up and go home, they must have some strategies up their sleeves. What's the plan?

Nokia were tight-lipped about Apple’s predicted triumph, but they did declare they have the lion's share of the smartphone market in Australia - without nominating a figure.

Their hopes are resting on the new model N8, to be released October-December. This has more bells and whistles than a theatre organ: 12MP camera, high definition video, web TV - and a big graphic screen just like the iPhone's. They have obviously been burning a lot of midnight oil in Helsinki.

The other big hitters are also slugging away. Google's Android operating system is fuelling new magic from the likes of HTC and Motorola, while Microsoft are about to launch their new Windows Phone 7; their current customers include Samsung and Palm.

Where iPhone has won big-time is in the apps race. Two years ago Blackberry had thousands of apps yet Apple had but a handful. Today Apple claim 150,000 apps while Blackberry App World has 15,000 at the most. What went wrong?

"Blackberry didn't focus on apps, Apple did," explained a BB observer. "Also, they don't do their own above the line advertising, just leave it to the carriers, and Apple swamped them." Not controlling your own advertising is like driving from the back of the truck.

This is where good marketing counts and as I've often said, there's no better marketer than Jobs. He has sold iPhone directly to the public, creating a sucking vortex that the resellers can't ignore.

"Resellers hate iPhone, they don't make money out of it," explained the observer. "Jobs put all their money into marketing and has given the guys in the middle nothing."

Nokia also took a swipe at Apple. "We're not a one size fits all company," sniffed a spokeswoman. "We're able to deliver a range of handsets across different price points to different customers."

As if to prove the point, Nokia recently released its Bicycle Charger Kit, like a bike light generator you plug your phone into. It’s aimed at the Third World, one of the biggest growth markets. In South America or darkest Africa, even if they don't have electricity, they can charge their phones as they ride to work. Try that with an iPhone.